So if you’ve been following my latest series of posts then you know I’ve been spending a lot of time talking about ranking well and moving your site up in the SERPS. The difference in traffic that can be generated from ranking #1 versus ranking even as high as #5 is significant and clearly shows that you should be striving for nothing less than ranking #1. Unfortunately, most niche site builders settle for getting on page 1 (at best) and typically end up just taking whatever long tail traffic that comes along.
In my 100k dollar niche site post, I shared some statistics for a traffic study that was produced using stats from the AOL search engine. These stats have been widely dissected and studied and I have seen them used a number of times around the net. In case you missed it the stats I am referring to is below. What this chart is showing us is the percentage of search traffic we can expect to capture based on how well we rank for that particular keyword.
For example, lets say a keyword has 1000 searches a month, and you rank #1, then you should expect around 420 clicks on your site from those 1k searches. If you ranked #5 then you should expect to see that number change to only around 50 clicks. That’s amazing that the drop is THAT strong from #1 to even as high as #5 and really highlights that you want to rank absolutely as high as possible.
Overall Percent of Clicks
1. 42.13%, 2,075,765 clicks
2. 11.90%, 586,100 clicks
3. 8.50%, 418,643 clicks
4. 6.06%, 298,532 clicks
5. 4.92%, 242,169 clicks
6. 4.05%, 199,541 clicks
7. 3.41%, 168,080 clicks
8. 3.01%, 148,489 clicks
9. 2.85%, 140,356 clicks
10. 2.99%, 147,551 clicks
Yeah But…Is it Accurate?
If you know me than you know that I prefer to prove something before fully accepting a theory, ESPECIALLY if I read it on some blog somewhere. So I thought why not scrub this data and put it to the test to see if it’s accurate. So I will again break out my bike trainer site for some stats.
Check out the image below. These are my GA stats for the month of December. I rank #1 in Google right now for the keyword Bike Trainer Reviews so let’s see how accurate the formula is in reality.
I am going to use all visits rather than unique visits for this example so that we capture uniques and repeat visitors. I had a total of 1799 visits on the bike trainer reviews keyword with 1760 of them coming from the Google Search Engine. If we check the Google keyword tool then we see that Google puts the search volume for December at 2400 searches. We captured 73% of that search traffic by ranking #1…way above the 42%. Hmm.
Let’s take a look at my second best keyword “bike trainers reviews” and find that Google Keyword tool estimates 720 searches for December for that keyword. We also rank #1 for that keyword so we should expect 302 visitors and we actually captured 451 visitors via google or 63% of that keyword, again well above 42%.
So let’s tackle the 3rd best keyword on the site which is “bicycle trainer reviews.” We only rank #5 for this keyword currently so we SHOULD only expect about 4.92% of the search counts. Google estimates this keyword at 1300 per month and we actually captured 332 visitors OR 26% of the search counts.
So in all 3 cases we far exceeded these % estimates that this chart says we could expect, which is actually a good thing and in the case of this site and in this niche, would actually inflate my 18k dollar estimate that I made in the other post. This is really GREAT news but I think I would want more proof than 3 keywords on one site before I said the chart was not accurate. The dilemna that we face is which is not accurate, the chart or the Google Keyword tool?
The right answer is probably both have a little wiggle in them. Google has never claimed that their keyword tool is actual numbers or dead on accurate but its a best estimate of search counts that they can provide. Honestly in my case, I am leaning towards the keyword tool being the culprit as I simply don’t think that the #1 position could earn 70 percent of the searchers. There are just simply too many competing products on your average Google search page, including the very well placed paid searches at the the top.
In any event and regardless of which is incorrect, the end result is that my 18k dollar estimate from Part 2, is actually kind of conservative. That’s the way I am seeing it.
So What Does It All Mean?
I know I am breaking out a lot of math, formulas and theory that might appear difficult but it really isn’t. Once you’ve kind of run through an example on your own to find your keyword potential then this is all rather simple.
I plan to keep using this chart and the Google keyword tool for now as I would rather be conservative in my estimates as being conservative will typically not yield disappointment while being overly aggressive might set the bar too high to meet, causing disappointment.
So to summarize, I think we can safely estimate that #1 position is good for at least 42% of searches for this particular niche, so when I analyze the Top 10 or 20 keywords in Part 3 of the 100k dollar Niche Site post, we’ll know it’s a conservative number. 
If you were skeptical before….starting to believe yet?
20 Responses to “Can These Stats Be Trusted?”
very good fact and analysis regarding the searche engine traffic to the websites.
Part 3 almost ready? I can’t wait
@Simon – Yep it is….I will get it live Thursday or Friday…I am travelling this week so I haven’t polished up the article to the point it’s ready to go live but I can soon. Glad you are interested.
This had to be true but yeah it is presented in a good way.
Google keywords analysis is taking into account certain factors before it comes up with their actual number for number of expected clicks.
There are other factors (that Google Analytics does not consider) which might result in higher percentage for the particular keyword but not similar kinds for the other keywords for the same rank.
Though I still need some data to prove myself.
By the way I liked your blogs and these are really informative and I would like to read your blogs in future as well!!
Keep Blogging
Cheers!
Good to see some figures to back up what i said all along your need to be no 1 on your search term to drive serious traffic page one is not enough
I have used other keyword tools (wordtracker and other paid ones) but I always seem to keep going back to the Google keyword tool, it sort of a love hate relationship I have with them.
It’s good you do a thorough research and analysis. Good point!
Some interesting stats there. Thanks for putting them up.
Till then,
Jean
I believe in terms of accuracy, there could be other factors that could influence whether this holds true for every keyword. For example, if search result 1, 2 and 3 do not fulfill the requirements of the user, then probably the 6% mentioned by the graph allocated for number 4 above would not be accurate anymore. It will be different for those looking for specific products or someone looking for just plain information.
These stats are unbelievable! Great job in bringing these out!
First of all, I love this type of post. Second of all, I think that the Google trends tool, is a good one to use, and compare that to other keywords and see how it stacks up. Also.. have you tried Google’s new Search-based keyword tool? It seems to me, to be way more accurate. I have seen… the Google Adwords: Keyword tool say an estimate traffic amount of 700,000, and then Google’s new Tool says 10,000 which is a HUGE jump. I did a search on the Search-based keyword tool, for your keyword “Bike Trainer Reviews” but unfortunately, It didn’t give any numbers as it doesn’t seem to have the data for it yet
I am definitely gonna read more of your blog posts.
Nice stats, I can trust it statistics. I’m using word tracker for keyword research and analytics for know to traffic of website.
It’s not really easy to be in the number #1 spot in Google these days and it’s like long tail keywords are also getting scarcer! But it’s true. I never thought it’s that important to rank nr. 1, I always thought that people can just also see my number 2 results just as good the first one from the other guy. So I always thought by distracting the viewer by perhaps things like “$$$) or yes like “$1000 in 24 hrs” they’ll also be able to easily click on spot nr 2 or 3. But it seems as if people always tend to click on result #1 first despite everything else.
Hummm very good stats
That is a really interesting point! I have been happy with being on the first page for much too long. It is time for me to start aiming for that top spot for my keywords.
That’s interesting. I had not seen that chart. What is even better is that you were able to surpass the expected click threws. I guess your right that they both have a bit of wiggle room, but it does make you wonder about the keyword tool.
Good Blog..thanks for sharing..This is the best information on marketing
Wow, this one of the best money making post I’ve ever read.
Very well presented and easy to understand, even with the statistics included!! I also like Google’s keyword tool for doing research, probably because it gives you choices on what you want to see, rather than one column of search results and nothing else, like WordTracker. Great article.
I think Data is Accurate , because of so much things are included that seems very cumbersome